The luxury real estate market in Pebble Beach and Carmel was steady throughout 2017; we noted a slight increase in sales totals over 2016. But ultra-luxury price-band sales activity dropped dramatically, and entry-luxury sales ($1M-$2M) exploded. Multiple-offer competition occurred repeatedly when the list price was accurate and the condition and location of the home were excellent. Over-priced listings stagnated on the market, whereas correctly priced homes seemed to fly off the shelf. Inventory remained low throughout most of 2017 and buyer interest remained strong. Those buyers who thought they were smarter than everyone else and hoped for a market drop missed out on purchasing a home in 2017. Sellers were successful when they responded to realistic offers, and adjusted their price based on market trends.
2017 Sales from Jan. 1, 2017 – Dec. 10, 2017
Carmel Pebble Beach
Total Sales: 348 120
Total Sales $1 Million and above: 239 100
Average days on Market: 101 100
Median list price: $1,785,000 $1,922,500
Average sales price: $1,695,000 $1,753,150
Price band with the highest
total sales: $1-2 million (170 sales) $1-2 million (52 sales)
Price band with lowest total sales: $7 million+ (3 sales) $6.5 million+ (1 sale)
My predictions for the 2018 luxury real estate market: We will continue to see strength with minor increases in price and overall volume. Our economy will continue to grow, even with a political climate rift with uncertainty. Proposed changes impacting tax deductions in the housing market will be overturned, due to the strong voices of the National Association of Realtors and of politically active citizens. Even if the housing tax reform passes, it will have little impact on the luxury house market in Carmel and Pebble Beach. But it will negatively impact housing markets across the U.S.A in the price bands between $100,000-$500,000.
Locals ask me if the housing bubble is going to burst again. My thoughts: If North Korea goes ballistic or we experience a dramatic world event, then possibly. Otherwise NO, the real estate market will remain steady on the Monterey Peninsula. Population growth in the U.S.A. and housing demand continue to exceed housing starts. NIMBY nay-sayers and anti-growth governing bodies continue to hamper local development. Average sales prices reaching $1.7M in Carmel and Pebble Beach also limit the number of qualified buyers. Low inventory will continue to drive demand and home values. This is positive if you are already a homeowner and negative if you are trying to move here.